Momentum Wealth Research -- Demo Dashboard

Daily Chart Desk

March 13, 2026 · Generated 4:15 PM ET

RED LINEBULL

SPY $662.36

VIX 27.26

10Y 4.28%

Big Picture

Friday close. Ugly week. $SPY finished at 662.36 (-0.56% today, -2.35% on the week, -2.87% YTD) � its third consecutive weekly decline, the first such streak in about a year. Markets opened higher on slightly-better-than-feared PCE data but sellers took control by midday as oil surged and the Hormuz crisis showed zero signs of easing. WTI settled at $98.65 (+3.05%), Brent at $103.28 (+2.81%) � front-month futures continuing to push higher on supply fears. VIX closed at 27.26, holding above 27. The morning data was mixed: headline PCE cooled to 2.8% YoY (below 2.9% consensus), but core PCE held at 3.1% YoY � an acceleration from December's 3.0% that cements the no-cut narrative. UMich consumer sentiment slipped to 55.5 (above 55.0 consensus, but the lowest in three months). Expectations fell to 54.1 � the weakest since November � as Hormuz fears weighed on households. The real story today was the private credit contagion spreading further: $BLK fell 8.3% after capping HLEND redemptions at 5%, and Morgan Stanley's North Haven gating made headlines again. $XLF closed -2.86% on the week � one of the worst sectors. Meanwhile, $XLE is the only sector that works: +2.45% this week, +29.05% YTD. Red Line remains BULL, but the weight of evidence is deteriorating.

$GLD +16.28% YTD - structural safe haven bid

$BLK -13.18% YTD - HLEND gating impact

Macro Regime Check

Indicator	Signal	Note
January PCE (Released Today)	Bearish	Headline PCE cooled to 2.8% YoY (below 2.9% consensus). But core PCE held at 3.1% YoY (+0.4% MoM) � acceleration from December's 3.0%. Supercore (services ex-housing, ex-energy) still sticky. Insurance, healthcare, and wage growth creating a floor. If core stays above 3% by mid-year, rate cuts in 2026 get priced out entirely.
UMich Consumer Sentiment (Released Today)	Bearish	Preliminary March reading: 55.5 (slightly above 55.0 consensus, down from 56.6). Current conditions rose to 57.8 but expectations dropped to 54.1 � weakest since November. 1-year inflation expectations held at 3.4%. 5-year expectations ticked down to 3.2% from 3.3%. Interviews before the Iran strikes showed improvement; the nine days after erased it entirely.
10Y Treasury Yield	Bearish	Closed at 4.28%, up from 4.27% yesterday. Bond market pricing persistent inflation from oil pass-through. FOMC next week � if dot plot shifts from 1 cut to 0 cuts, equity multiples compress further.
VIX	Bearish	Closed at 27.26, essentially flat from yesterday's 27.29. Third consecutive week above 25. Below 25 = genuine de-escalation. Above 30 = panic. We're in the uncomfortable middle.
$HYG (High Yield Credit)	Bearish	$HYG at $79.20, -0.80% YTD. Public high-yield spreads widening as broader credit stress builds � oil shock + slowing growth pressuring leveraged borrowers. Watch $78 support (6-month low $78.03) � break below signals risk-off across credit markets.
Oil (WTI / Brent)	Bearish	WTI settled at $98.65 (+3.05% today), Brent at $103.28 (+2.81%). Elevated on supply disruption. Hormuz traffic down 97% since Feb 28 per UN data. IEA released 400M barrels from reserves. Saudi diverting via East-West Pipeline but deficit of ~12M bbl/day remains. Defense Secretary Hegseth downplayed the crisis; Energy Secretary Wright admitted Navy isn't ready to escort tankers yet.
Fed / FOMC (March 17-18)	Neutral	Fed in blackout. Today's PCE was the last data point before Wednesday's decision. Market pricing essentially zero cuts in 2026. Dot plot is what matters � if median shifts from 1 cut to 0, equities reprice. Powell presser at 2:30 PM March 18.
Gold	Bullish	$GLD at $460.84, +16.28% YTD vs $TLT flat. Gold futures pulled back to $5,020.10 (-1.87% today) � profit-taking after the run to $5,100+. Structural bid intact. Central banks buying relentlessly. Institutions replacing Treasuries with gold as the safe haven of choice.
Private Credit Contagion	Bearish	ACCELERATING. $BLK down 13.18% YTD after HLEND ($26B) capped redemptions at 5%. Morgan Stanley North Haven ($7.8B) honored only 45.8% of Q1 requests. Blue Owl permanently halted redemptions and is liquidating $1.4B in assets � shares down 40.27% YTD. Cliffwater ($33B) capped at 7%. PIMCO warns of 'full-blown default cycle.' Public BDCs receiving 8% of income via PIK � investors no longer view that as quality earnings. Fed/FSOC working group monitoring. If Blackstone or Apollo gate, it's systemic.

Sector Rotation

Broad selling this week � $SPY -2.35%, $QQQ -2.31%, $IWM -2.78%. Small caps hit hardest. Only two sectors green on the week: $XLE +2.45% (energy keeps working) and $XLU +0.23% (barely). Everything else red. Worst performers: $XLI -3.68% (airlines + industrials), $XLY -3.26% (consumer crushed by gas prices), $XLV -2.90% (healthcare weak), $XLF -2.86% (private credit contagion). $RSP at $193.52, +1.02% YTD � still outperforming $SPY (-2.87% YTD) by nearly 4 points. Breadth is poor but equal-weight holding up better than cap-weight as mega-cap tech drags. YTD sector map tells the whole story: $XLE +29.05%, $XLU +10.00%, $XLP +9.09% � energy + defensives. Bottom: $XLF -10.74%, $XLY -7.16%, $XLK -4.98% � financials + growth + discretionary. Textbook stagflationary positioning.

Sector Performance

Sector	Weekly	Note
XLE		+29.05% YTD, +2.45% this week. Only sector green. Brent $103.28 validates everything. Risk: Hormuz de-escalation reverses this hard. But oil above $100 is the new reality until something changes militarily.
XLU		+10.00% YTD, +0.23% this week (only other sector not red). Defensive bid holding even as 10Y pushes higher. Rate sensitivity being overridden by flight to safety.
XLP		+9.09% YTD, -1.43% this week. Mild weakness but best defensive sector. Stagflation positioning keeps staples bid.
XLB		+8.47% YTD but -1.60% this week. Materials pulling back after a strong start. Commodity tailwind fading outside of energy.
XLI		+6.14% YTD but -3.68% this week. Airlines getting crushed on fuel costs � WTI near $99 is a margin killer. Industrial activity slowing.
XLRE		+4.71% YTD, -1.70% this week. Rate-sensitive. If 10Y breaks 4.30% post-FOMC, XLRE sells off further.
XLC		-2.78% YTD, -2.65% this week. $META -3.83% today, dragging comms. $GOOG in M5 at $302.28.
XLV		-3.24% YTD, -2.90% this week. Healthcare not acting defensive. $LLY in M5.
XLK		-4.98% YTD, -2.12% this week. $NVDA -1.58%, $MSFT -1.57%, $AAPL -2.21%. $ADBE -6.5% on CEO departure. GTC keynote Sunday could be a catalyst � but tech needs one badly.
XLY		-7.16% YTD, -3.26% this week. Worst weekly performer. Gas prices eroding consumer spending power. UMich sentiment confirming the damage.
XLF		-10.74% YTD, -2.86% this week. Private credit contagion is the dominant story. $BLK -13.18% YTD. Four+ funds gated. PIMCO warning of default cycle. Q1 bank earnings in April will show the damage. Worst sector by far.

$XLE +29.05% YTD - only sector working

$XLF -10.74% YTD - private credit contagion

What to Watch

FOMC Decision + Dot Plot (March 18, 2:00 PM)

NVIDIA GTC Keynote (Sunday March 16)

Private Credit � Next Fund to Gate

$HYG � $78 Support

Iran / Hormuz � Weekend Developments

10Y Yield � 4.30% Resistance

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Positive

The Red Line is bullish. Fully invested.

Since Oct 2023

S&P 500

6,040.53

Red Line

+7.2%

Value Signal

Confirmed

Since

Oct 2023

Fully Invested — 100% EquityNext review: Feb 1, 2025

S&P 500

6,040.53

Red Line

+7.2% above

Value Signal

Confirmed

VIX

16.4

Current M5 Holdings — January 2025

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NVDA

Tech

+5.4%

1 month

AVGO

Semiconductors

+3.8%

1 month

Month	Regime	M5 Picks
Jan 2025	BULL	NVDA, AVGO, META, AMZN, COST
Dec 2024	BULL	NVDA, META, AVGO, AMZN, LLY
Nov 2024	BULL	NVDA, META, AVGO, COST, AMZN
Oct 2024	BULL	NVDA, AVGO, META, LLY, COST
Sep 2024	BULL	NVDA, META, AVGO, NFLX, COST

Date	Signal	S&P 500	Duration	Return in Period
Nov 2023	BUY	4,567	15 mo (active)	+24.1%
Apr 2022	SELL	4,132	19 mo	+10.5%
Jun 2020	BUY	3,100	22 mo	+33.3%
Mar 2020	SELL	2,954	3 mo	+4.9%
Jun 2019	BUY	2,942	9 mo	+0.4%

META

Tech

+2.1%

1 month

AMZN

Consumer

-1.2%

1 month

COST

Staples

+1.9%

1 month

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Hypothetical blends of a broad index with momentum picks. Since January 2018.

CAGR

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Max DD

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Std Dev

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$10K →

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Core 80/20

80% Red Line · 20% M5

Growth 65/35

65% Red Line · 35% M5

Momentum 50/50

50% Red Line · 50% M5

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CAGR

14.2%

vs SPY 11.8%

Max Drawdown

-18.7%

vs SPY -33.7%

Std Deviation

15.3%

vs SPY 16.2%

$10K →

$26,180

vs SPY $22,418

Current Holdings

Core 80/20 blend

Holding	Type	Weight	Shares	Value
SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF	Red Line	80.0%	135	$80,000
NVDA NVIDIA Corp	M5	4.0%	28	$4,000
AVGO Broadcom	M5	4.0%	17	$4,000
META Meta Platforms	M5	4.0%	7	$4,000
AMZN Amazon	M5	4.0%	17	$4,000
COST Costco	M5	4.0%	4	$4,000

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Backtest results are hypothetical and do not represent actual trading or live portfolio performance. Key assumptions: no transaction costs, slippage, or taxes are modeled; the Red Line strategy trades SPY at the open following a month-end signal with cash earning 0% during uninvested periods; the M5 strategy uses point-in-time monthly holdings files to mitigate survivorship bias (though some bias may remain), executes at the open of the first trading day each month, equal-weights each January and drifts mid-year. Both backtests use dividend-adjusted prices. A concentrated portfolio of 5 stocks carries significantly higher risk than a diversified index.

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